Market Outlook

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 1.39% above, another new high since Feb 2020. ZFX analyst Jacob Leung said that, again it would be a “warning”. High yields in long terms mean less “easy borrowing” and of course, it will attract the market money back to the bond markets from equities.

Bitcoin hit a fresh record high above $52000 level on Wednesday. This valuable cryptocurrency is now still trading at $52000 level above in Asian session on Thursday despite the rebound of the greenback, while some analysts start to warn that the surge might be unsustainable, and the major investment banks also appear to be warning about bitcoin’s volatility.

Despite a bounce-back session, dollar maintains at a relative high level, that dollar index is hovering near a seven-week high on Tuesday. This safe-haven is benefited from a euro selloff overnight. One of the reasons is that lockdowns over those European countries are proved to hurt the economy, showing in the Germany retailing figures of Dec.

On Monday, stock markets in Asia-Pacific, especially HK HSI, were higher as the market sentiment is still positive towards President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus packages. However, European stocks are trading mixed as the counterparts in the US are just moving slightly, reflecting cautious views over the markets.

Investors expected that the new US government may consider to raise tax to solve part of the budget deficit due to such massive fiscal support, that on the other hand may weaken the recovery of the US economy and the effectiveness of the current monetary policies. ZFX analyst Jacob Leung said that it would be a “trade-off”. If Biden’s tax policy is implemented, the dollar’s outlook will be a bit different. And in turn, the whole market sentiment may not be that bullish.

Stocks in Asia-Pacific markets were generally good, following the momentum last week despite currently the slight correction of the US futures. The dollar index is trading at 90.4 level, rallying from the low of 89.21. European stocks are expected to be a mixed opening on Monday, based on a bit cautious sentiment.

Bitcoin has made another record, breaking $30000 mark over the weekend, touching $34000 level. It has jumped over 300% in 2020, which is another crazy move since 2017. While many investors believe that such move is abnormal, may be the biggest market bubble so far, some of them still consider that bitcoin is a market chance.

ZFX analyst Jacob Leung said that weak dollar and higher commodity prices are the typical outcomes from those stimulus measures in the US, at least according to the experiences in 2009 to 2011. We should have a look at Bitcoin, that has been pushed up to $26000-27000 level, reflecting the hedging needs and the distrust of those main central banks in the world.

Overall, the risk appetite from the $900 billion of the coronavirus stimulus bill was overshadowed. In other words, it may be a typical “buy the rumor sell the news” as such “bullish” has been “priced in”. The dollar, which is deemed as the only “relative” safe haven, may go further stronger if the uncertainties remain.

However, what is doubtful to the investors is that the deadline of the negotiations between the UK and EU has been postponed again and again. Both sides decided to continue the negotiation for the Brexit agreement on Sunday, causing a gapping up of the Pound this week. They agreed to put last every effort to reach the deal. So now, the investment market is again optimistic that an agreement of Brexit can be made finally within this week.