Market Outlook

The NFP showed 1.371 million jobs were added in August, slightly less than the expectations around 1.4 million. But, the unemployment rate in August unexpectedly dropped to 8.4%, far lower than expected. As there is no fundamental change in the US economy, investors believe that such tumble was just a normal correction, and the three major indexes finally rebounded after the fluctuation.

The Wall Street overnight was bullish together with the bouncing dollar. S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record highs again, and the DOW reached 29000 level, the highest since the late February. However, stocks in Asian trading session were just mixed on Thursday as investors react differently to the latest economic data. The US stocks even closed higher after the disappointing ADP figures, showing that the private payrolls only increased by 428000 in August, far below expectation of over 900000, triggering concerns over the US labor market.

On Tuesday earlier, weak dollar was the market theme in the financial market. However, after the economic data announcement in the US session, the dollar obviously regained its loss. A better than expected ISM manufacturing figures restored the confidence over the dollar, and further improved the market sentiment. The three major Wall Street indexes rose, of which the Nasdaq jumped nearly 1.4%.

In Asian trading session, the dollar index was once as low as 92.15. After the Fed announced the latest monetary policy framework, investors expected that the Fed will maintain the low interest rates policy for a long period of time, hurting the outlook of the dollar. Following the momentum of last Friday, the US indexes futures remained strong.

The markets believe that the Fed will set the inflation like an average range, meaning that the Fed would accept a higher or lower inflation rate for a period of time. Any remarks made by Fed Chairman Powell in this two-day “online” annual meeting, will be treated as a guideline for the September FOMC meeting. That’s why investors may see this annual meeting as a key risk event.

Asian stocks were generally closed higher on Friday, following the momentum overnight. The economic figures of the US were mixed. The US Labor Department announced that the initial weekly jobless claims bounced to 1.106 million, which is higher than the market expectation of 925000.

Stock markets in Asian region were mostly higher on Tuesday, while there are both bullish and bearish news overnight. Optimism was boosted after those companies announced the vaccine developments are now taking step to the late-stage trials. However, the tensions between China and the US is still a big reason for investors to seek safe haven, causing gold price reached a new record high of $1940 level. Silver price even jumped more than 8%，reaching $24.5 level.

Risk-on sentiment continued on Tuesday, as the market expects the White House will soon launch another economic stimulus package to tackle the pandemic-driven recession. On the other hand, Trump and his administration clarified the trade deal with China is “fully intact”, assuring the whole market. All three Wall Street indexes rose on Tuesday, of which the Nasdaq advanced 0.74%.

Market sentiment improved on Friday earlier session as the investors believed that the China-US tension eased after the closed-door meeting in Hawaii. It is reported that China will accelerate the purchases of the US agricultural products, which boosted the Wall Street. However, the risk of the second wave of coronavirus pandemic sparked the fears. Three major indexes lost all the gains in the late session.

The rise in new coronavirus cases is now one of the key concerns again, with more than 8.4 million confirmed cases worldwide and more than 450000 deaths. The risk of reopening economic activities is going to be higher and higher, which may slow down the recovery unless the vaccine has been developed.