Market Outlook

The oil prices finally bounced back after the dramatic drop earlier. The June WTI crude futures was up 19% mainly due to the expectation of a further production cut from OPEC+. Oil inventories surged less than expected, and tensions have been heightened between the US and Iran after Trump’s instruction, also triggering the rebound. In addition, the market is looking forward to the new economic stimulus package from the US. The three major Wall Street indexes all rose, regaining Tuesday's lost ground, as risk appetite improved across markets.

The outlook of oil prices is still extremely gloomy. The June contract of WTI crude futures fell sharply, once dropped below the $10 mark. Although there was a rebound in the late US session, the WTI still closed 43% lower! The plunge has boosted risk aversion so that the three major Wall Street indexes all fell more than 2%.

The volatility of oil prices remained in focus on Monday. The WTI crude futures finally collapsed dramatically to negative territory, crashed more than 300%. The crazy plunge in oil prices triggered risk aversion in the financial markets, and the three major Wall Street indexes all fell, which the DOW declined the most by 2.44%.

The poor performance of the economic figures released by the US recently had just little effect on the market sentiment last Friday. President Trump announced the guidelines for reopening the economy, which boosted the market sentiment, and the good news from “Remdesivir” developed by US pharmaceutical companies also boosted the hopes on a potential coronavirus treatment, supporting the three major Wall Street indexes all rose, with the Dow rose nearly 3%.

The initial jobless claims in the United States dropped to 5.245 million for the last week, but the figures still slightly more than expected, showing that it may be a deep economic slump caused by the coronavirus outbreak. The analysis generally believes that the figures will remain at the high level in the coming weeks. US stocks indexes fell at the opening due to the investor fears. However, US President Trump announced guidelines for reopening the US economy, stimulating the market sentiment again. The Wall Street three major indexes recovered the loss and closed slightly higher, which the "strong" Nasdaq rose 1.66%.

A series of poor economic figures released by the United States has triggered the investor fears about the global economic situation. The risk aversion returned on Wednesday, and the greenback jumped to near 100 level, causing that the three major Wall Street indexes all fell by more than 1%, with the S&P 500 falling by more than 2%.

On Tuesday (April 14), optimism continued as the market was expecting the US will soon reopen the economy, and the coronavirus outbreak in Europe showed signs of easing. The news boosted the investor confidence, driving the Wall Street three major indexes all rose, of which the Nasdaq continued to rise strongly by nearly 4%, a four consecutive trading days rally.

Before the Easter holiday, the financial market sentiment improved, as the Fed announced another $2.3 trillion economic stimulus plan, coupled with the expectation that OPEC+ could reach the production cut agreement, supporting Wall Street to further test the recent highs. However, after the holiday, optimism faded again. The Dow fell more than 1% on Monday (April 13), but the Nasdaq rose for three consecutive trading days.

On Wednesday (April 8), market sentiment was lifted again due to the supportive news. Investors become active to move back into risky assets. Wall Street ’s three major indexes rose, of which the Dow and S&P 500 rose more than 3%. The overall market trend is choppy, mostly dominated by the sentiment. The White House health advisor Fauci said on Wednesday that the US coronavirus outbreak situation should be improved next week, and President Trump also pointed out that the reopen of US economy will only be faster. Also, the announcement of Sanders ’withdrawal eliminated some uncertainties. All those news turned the market to be more bullish.

On Tuesday (April 7), risk appetite once dominated the financial market. However, investors worried about OPEC+ meeting this week regarding the production cut. The uncertainty triggered risk aversion, and the Wall Street's three major indexes fell from the top at Tuesday’s opening, which the Dow once rose more than 900 points. Eventually, the three major indexes all closed slightly lower.