ZFX: Job market collapse? Growing fears over the coronavirus
Review:
Last Friday (April 3), the non-farm payroll in US was far worse than the market expectations, further confirming that the US job market has been severely hit by the global pandemic. The market sentiment once again became bearish. The three major Wall Street indexes all fell more than 1.5%.
Oil prices rebounded further, the financial market got a slight boost earlier on Friday. However, the global pandemic of new coronavirus has not been under controlled, and the number of confirmed cases and deaths continue to soar, increasing investors ’worries.
Non-farm payrolls dropped by 701000 in March, the biggest decline since March 2009, which the market was originally expected only 100000 job cuts. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest since August 2017, which the market expected 3.8% only. The figures showed that the US has ended 113 consecutive months of job growth, and the current situation of US economy may be much worse than expected.
Most of the analysis predicts that the future economic figures are likely to deteriorate further as the current data may not fully reflect the impact of the epidemic. The unemployment rate in the US may rise to more than 10%.
Investors are keep monitoring the global pandemic. According to the latest news, more than 1.27 million cases were confirmed, nearly 70000 people died. ZFX analyst Jacob Leung said that the current number of confirmed cases is accelerating again, nearly 100000 cases per day. This also means that during this period, the global economy is just standstill. The investment sentiment can’t be positive for long.
The oil prices soared last week, mainly due to the production cut expectations. Investors are looking forward to the agreement can be reached by OPEC+ as soon as this week. But, the latest news is that the OPEC+ will postpone the emergency video conference originally scheduled on Monday, to Thursday. The market was worried that OPEC+ committees have no consensus yet on the production cuts. Oil prices gapped down sharply on Monday opening. “Bloomberg” quoted the news as saying that both Saudi Arabia and Russia want the United States to participate in production cuts, but US President Trump has no intention about that.
ZFX analyst Jacob Leung said that if the oil price become unstable again, obviously the financial market will continue to be volatile. During the period of the epidemic situation and the sluggish economic figures, investors should be cautious and conservative.
AUD/USD
Market theme / sentiment: The market conditions have deteriorated, and the Aussie has continued correction.
Support: 0.5990; 0.5970 Resistance: 0.6040; 0.6100
Recommendation: Short sell at 0.5990, target 0.5970, stop loss at 0.6010. Go long at 0.5970 with a target of 0.5990 and a stop loss of 0.5940. (It is recommended not to consider the bid-ask spread factor)
Position follow-up and profit and loss: short 0.6080, target 0.6050, stop loss 0.6110. (Cancelled) (It is recommended not to consider the bid-ask spread factor)
Cumulative profit and loss: 555 pips
EUR/USD
Market theme / sentiment: Funds support the dollar and US Treasury, the euro fell again.
Support: 1.0800; 1.0750 Resistance: 1.0870; 1.0900
Recommendation: wait and see. (It is recommended not to consider the bid-ask spread factor)
Position follow-up and profit and loss: 1.0880 short, change to 1.0870 short, target 1.0840, stop loss 1.0900. (Pending) (It is recommended not to consider the
bid-ask spread factor)
Cumulative profit and loss: 320 pips
GBP/USD
Market theme / sentiment: The dollar strengthened, and the pound declined after a long period of consolidation.
Support: 1.2200; 1.2140 Resistance: 1.2320; 1.2400
Recommendation: 1.2270 short, target 1.2220, stop loss 1.2290. 1.2320 is short, the target is 1.2290 and the stop loss is 1.2350. (It is recommended not to consider the bid-ask spread factor)
Position follow-up and profit and loss: — (It is recommended not to consider the bid-ask spread factor)
Cumulative profit and loss: 320 pips
GOLD
Market theme / sentiment: The US economic is fallen into a recession, benefits gold price.
Support level: 1605; 1590 resistance level: 1625; 1635
Recommendation: long at 1615, target 1622, stop loss 1606. (It is recommended not to consider the bid-ask spread factor)
Position follow-up and profit and loss: 1607 has been short, and the stop loss is at 1612. (Stopped) (It is recommended not to consider the bid-ask spread)
Cumulative profit and loss: -72 USD
USOIL(美国原油)
Market theme / sentiment: The OPEC+ production cut has not been finalized, and the oil price fluctuated.
Support: 28.00; 26.80 Resistance: 29.00; 30.30
Recommendation: The price difference between OTC quotes still large and no recommendations are made.
Position follow-up and profit and loss: —
Cumulative profit and loss: $ 9.8
Risk Warning: The above content is for reference only and does not represent ZFX’s position. ZFX does not assume any form of loss caused by any trading operations conducted in accordance with this article. Please be firm in your thinking and do the corresponding risk control.