Market Outlook

Last Friday (April 3), the non-farm payroll in US was far worse than the market expectations, further confirming that the US job market has been severely hit by the global pandemic. The market sentiment once again became bearish. The three major Wall Street indexes all fell more than 1.5%. Oil prices rebounded further, the financial market got a slight boost earlier on Friday. However, the global pandemic of new coronavirus has not been under controlled, and the number of confirmed cases and deaths continue to soar, increasing investors ’worries.

On Thursday (April 2), the employment figure released by the United States scared investors, but then a positive news from the oil market boosted market confidence. Investors is expecting a truce in the price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia. The three major Wall Street indexes were still up, which the Dow and S&P both gained more than 2%, under the fears of new coronavirus pandemic.

On Wednesday (April 1), the three major Wall Street indexes plunged again, all fell more than 4%, even if the economic figures performed better than expected. Investors are worried that the coronavirus will keep the economy shut down longer than expected. US President Trump has warned that the next two weeks will be "very painful" and the situation will worsen, calling on the public to be prepared. The White House recently predicted 100000 to 240000 deaths in US even with the current strict social distancing measures. The market is expected that the pandemic will not be under controlled in the short term, increasing the pressure on the stock market.

On Tuesday (March 31), investor sentiment became cautious again. With the bullish news, the three major Wall Street indexes all fell, which the Dow lost more than 400 points, closed 1.84% lower. It is reported that the US government are drafting a new economic stimulus plan to deal with the impact of the US economy hit by the epidemic. Trump administration may defer tariffs for most-favored nations for 3 months on some imported goods, and will be announced in the form of executive order as soon as this week. However, the news has limited stimulus effect to the market sentiment.

On Monday (March 30), the financial market sentiment was lifted after some “good” news came out in the US session time. Investor confidence was stabilized, stimulating the three Wall Street indexes to rise, more than 3%. Trump said that the national social distancing guidelines will be extended to April 30, which lowered the market concerns about the epidemic causing long term damage to the economy.

On Friday (March 27), risk appetite in the financial market has changed. After three days strong move, the three major Wall Street indexes all fell, of which the Dow fell more than 4%. However, throughout the week, the Dow rose 12.8%, the biggest weekly gain since 1938. Even though the US House of Representatives passed the $2 trillion economic stimulus plan, it failed to further support the market sentiment.

On Thursday (March 26), financial markets continued to improve as the U.S. Senate finally passed a $2 trillion stimulus plan. The three major Wall Street indexes all rose sharply by more than 5%, the Dow regained the 22000 level and technically returned to the bull market (bounce back about 21% from the low, based on closing). Fed Chairman Powell's assurance that there will be no problems with unlimited QE, supporting the move.

On Wednesday (March 25), the sentiment in the financial market is still optimistic, mainly looking forward to the $2 trillion stimulus plan, which will be agreed by both Republican and Democratic Party soon. However, at the end of the trading day, it is reported that there is a disagreement over the expansion of jobless benefits in the plan. The three major Wall Street indexes retraced from the top of the day.

On Tuesday (March 24), investors began to return back to the stock market after digesting the news of unlimited QE. With the hope that the Republican and Democratic parties will agree on the $2 trillion stimulus plan, the three major Wall Street indexes skyrocketed. The Dow rose more than 2000 points, up 11.4%, the biggest one-day percentage gain since 1933.

Monday (March 23) the global financial markets are still pessimistic. However, a breaking news rocked the market causing volatility. Before the US market open, the Federal Reserve (Fed) announced that it will implement an unlimited version of quantitative easing (QE). The Fed announced that it will buy assets like US Treasury and Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) “in the amounts needed” to deal with the coronavirus crisis.