ZFX: Cautious optimism drives the market, oil remains a key concern

Friday (April 24) Review

• Oil prices extended the rebound, and investors are expecting that some states in the US will ease the lockdown measures by steps, and US President Trump signed the new economic stimulus packages, supporting the Wall Street’s three major indexes all rose more than 1%. The market maintains optimism, which make the dollar lower last Friday. The Volatility Index (VIX), which usually reflects the level of risk or investor panic, fell to its lowest level since early March.

• The US figures last Friday was mixed. The prelim durable goods orders in March fell 14.4%, a massive monthly drop that bigger than expected, which was 12% drop. In addition, the final reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was revised higher to 71.8 in April, better than expected 67.9.

• The spot gold remains trading at above $1700. Even though market sentiment was relatively optimistic, gold price held steady. Besides the US-Iran tension, the market is also concerned about the condition of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, which has triggered a certain extent of uncertainty and supported buying interest in gold market.

• No significant improvement was shown for the global outbreak of new coronavirus. There are nearly 3 million confirmed cases worldwide, and more than 200000 deaths.

ZFX analyst Jacob Leung said that this week the trend of the oil prices is still most likely to be the main concern. Although the market sentiment improved last Friday and the dollar edged lower, investors were just cautious all the time. In the past few weeks, optimism in market usually can’t last for too long. It is not surprising to see “reversal” move.

AUD / USD fundamentals or market sentiment – ​​the US dollar weakened, and commodity currencies are relatively strong.

Support: 0.6400; 0.6375 Resistance: 0.6450; 0.6480

View: The Aussie seems even stronger after short-term correction.

Recommendation: go long with 0.6390, target 0.6415, stop loss 0.6370. (Recommendation does not take into account the bid-ask spread factor)

Position follow-up and profit and loss: 0.6375 has been short and the stop loss is at 0.6395. (Stopped) (Recommendation does not take into account the bid-ask spread factor)

Cumulative profit and loss: 495 pips

EUR / USD fundamentals or market sentiment – ​​short covering may be the reason of the euro bounce back.

Support: 1.0800; 1.0770 Resistance: 1.0840; 1.0860

View: The euro broke its trendline, ease selling pressure.

Recommendation: wait and see. (Recommendation does not take into account the bid-ask spread factor)

Position follow-up and profit and loss: 1.0800 has been short, and the stop loss is at 1.0815. (Stopped) (Recommendation does not take into account the bid-ask spread factor)

Cumulative profit and loss: 425 pips

GBP / USD fundamentals or market sentiment – ​​the strength of the dollar faded, and the Pound is waiting for a breakthrough.

Support: 1.2370; 1.2340 Resistance: 1.2410; 1.2450

View: Sterling has established a ranging level between 1.23 and 1.24.

Recommendation: 1.2360 short, target 1.2340, stop loss 1.2380. (Recommendation does not take into account the bid-ask spread factor)

Position follow-up and profit and loss: 1.2380 has been short, and the stop loss is 1.2400. (Stopped) (Recommendation does not take into account the bid-ask spread factor)

Cumulative profit and loss: 395 pips

GOLD fundamentals or market sentiment-the overall factors are generally bullish, and gold price remains steady at 1700.

Support: 1710; 1700 resistance: 1730; 1740

View: The gold market so far has not changed its uptrend.

Recommendation: Go long in 1715, target 1722, stop loss 1707. (Recommendation does not take into account the bid-ask spread factor)

Position follow-up and profit and loss: 1730 has been short, the target is 1715. (Take profit) (Recommendation does not take into account the bid-ask spread factor)

Cumulative profit and loss: -27 USD

USOIL (WTI) fundamentals or market sentiment-after the strong rebound, oil prices tend to consolidate in short term.

Support: 17.00; 15.50 Resistance: 19.00; 20.00

View: ranging pattern in oil price, wait for a breakthrough.

Recommendation: the OTC quotes of the oil market have big differences, so no recommendation is made.

Position follow-up and profit and loss: —

Cumulative profit and loss: $ 9.8

US30 (Dow) fundamentals or market sentiment- bullish news were dominated in short term, US stocks returned to high levels.

Support: 23700; 23450 Resistance: 24000; 24300

View: The Dow made a tech break, adjustment may be finished.

Recommendation: 24000 short, target 23850, stop loss 24150. (Pay attention to the OTC quotations may have differences) (Recommendation does not take into account the bid-ask spread factor)

Position follow-up and profit and loss: 23200 long, target 23400, stop loss 23000. (Cancelled) 23550 has been short, and the stop loss is 23700. (Stopped) (Pay attention to the OTC quotations may have differences) (Recommendation does not take into account the bid-ask spread factor)

Cumulative profit and loss: -150 points

Risk Warning: The above content is for reference only and does not represent ZFX’s position. ZFX does not assume any form of loss caused by any trading operations conducted in accordance with this article. Please be firm in your thinking and do the corresponding risk control.