ZFX: Oil prices remain in focus, propping up the market sentiment

Tuesday (May 5) Review

• Oil prices continue the rebound “move”. The June contract of WTI crude futures surged over 20% again, a big rally of 5 consecutive days, which is supportive to the market sentiment. The market is still looking forward to the reopening of the global economy thus pushing the energy demand, boosting the oil prices.

• It is reported that President Trump is considering next economic stimulus package, which mainly involves tax cut.

• Fed Vice Chairman Clarida said that, the US economy is already in recession and the unemployment rate is going to surge to numbers that probably a record high since the 1940s. The pessimistic speech hit the sentiment but the three major Wall Street indexes still edged higher.

• The German court ruled that the ECB exceeded its power in the QE plan. If the ECB fails to prove the effectiveness and necessity of QE, the German central bank must stop the debt buying. Due to the uncertainty of the ECB’s policy, EUR/USD plunged to 1.0820 level.

• The situation of the new coronavirus pandemic is still not that optimistic. The number of confirmed cases worldwide has exceeded 3.7 million, nearly 260000 deaths. However, many countries have restarted economic activities by steps in response to the “ease” situation.

ZFX analyst Jacob Leung said that, to a certain extent, the big bounce of the oil prices has distorted the objective fundamentals of the market. However, keep in mind that the WTI has already jumped over 100% from the low, and if the trend reverse, that correction can easily drag down the market sentiment. In addition, there is always a “risk-off button” called China-US tensions.

AUD/USD

Support: 0.6410; 0.6380 Resistance: 0.6450; 0.6500

Recommendation: 0.6410 short, target 0.6390, stop loss 0.6425. (Recommendation does not take into account the bid-ask spread factor)

Position follow-up and profit and loss: — (Recommendation does not take into account the bid-ask spread factor)

Cumulative profit and loss: 515 pips

EUR/USD

Support: 1.0800; 1.0750 Resistance: 1.0870; 1.0900

Recommendation: wait and see. (Recommendation does not take into account the bid-ask spread factor)

Position follow-up and profit and loss: 1.0920 has been long, and the stop loss is 1.0880. (Stopped) (Recommendation does not take into account the bid-ask spread factor)

Cumulative profit and loss: 405 pips

GBP/USD

Support: 1.2410; 1.2380 Resistance: 1.2450; 1.2480

Recommendation: Go long at 1.2460, target 1.2490, stop loss 1.2430. (Recommendation does not take into account the bid-ask spread factor)

Position follow-up and profit and loss: — (Recommendation does not take into account the bid-ask spread factor)

Cumulative profit and loss: 305 pips

GOLD

Support: 1690; 1680 resistance: 1710; 1720

Recommendation: go long in 1714, target 1720, stop loss 1708. (Recommendation does not take into account the bid-ask spread factor)

Position follow-up and profit and loss: 1710 has been short, hit the target 1702. (Take profit) (Recommendation does not take into account the bid-ask spread factor)

Cumulative profit and loss: -9 USD

USOIL

Support: 24.50; 23.50 Resistance: 27.00; 28.00

Recommendation: the OTC quotes of the oil market have big differences, so no recommendation is made.

Position follow-up and profit and loss: —

Cumulative profit and loss: $ 9.8

US30

Support: 23700; 23500 Resistance: 24000; 24200

Recommendation: 24050 short, target 23850, stop loss 24200.

(Pay attention to the OTC quotations may have differences) (Recommendation does not take into account the bid-ask spread factor)

Position follow-up and profit and loss: 23800 has been short, and the stop loss is at 24100. (Stopped)

(Pay attention to the OTC quotations may have differences) (Recommendation does not take into account the bid-ask spread factor)

Cumulative profit and loss: -500 points

Risk Warning: The above content is for reference only and does not represent ZFX’s position. ZFX does not assume any form of loss caused by any trading operations conducted in accordance with this article. Please be firm in your thinking and do the corresponding risk control.