ZFX: Outbreak Fears Cool, Markets Remain Wary
Strategy Review: The mood in financial markets improved further on Tuesday (February 11) but failed to last, mainly due to caution among investors. Risk appetite continued to flow into the stock market, with the S&P and Nasdaq hitting record highs for two consecutive trading day, but the Dow rose and then fell, a relatively weak trend.
Chinese experts now expect the pneumonia outbreak to peak in February and end in April, while the WHO vaccine could be completed within 18 months. The latest news, the number of confirmed cases of pneumonia in mainland China alone exceeded 44,000, the number of growth shows signs of slowing down, for the financial markets to help some.
Jacob Leung, an analyst at ZFX, said investor confidence was stabilising, as has been mentioned, at least as the outbreak has not deteriorated. From the trend, the stock market oil market stabilization, the rmb rebound, gold prices back soft, debt interest recovery and so on, all mean the pattern of risk appetite.
However, it is an unknown that some investors have always been vigilant, and that the progress of the epidemic and the impact of the outbreak on the global economy will remain unknown, and that the market will still occasionally panic and uneasiness until there is more definite news, depending on whether market sentiment has been fermented at the moment.
Last night’s big U.S. data was modest, focused on the semi-annual monetary policy hearings attended by Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell in Congress. Overall, Powell maintained a positive view of the U.S. economic outlook, but said he would closely monitor the potential threat of a global pneumonia outbreak, though he stressed that it was too early to assess its impact.
Jacob Leung, an analyst at ZFX, said mr Powell’s comments showed no room for him to support further rate cuts.
Last night the performance of the gold market is more eye-catching, gold prices at one point at the high point plummeted more than $10. As risk aversion subsided, and with Powell’s claim no surprise, some speculative or short-term retreats. On the currency side, the dollar remained strong, but the yuan returned to 6.96, reflecting cooling concerns about the outbreak, while the pound rebounded, but not strongly, on the back of GDP data.
Expected intraday movements, financial markets are still cautious, some markets are often unsustainable, disguised range of opportunities rise.
AUD/USD
Market Theme / Sentiment: Rmb picks up, driving the Australian dollar.
Market Tech Summary: Hourly chart shows that the Aussie dollar is currently above all averages, indicating a rise or restart. The expansion of the BB indicates post-market volatility. RSI is around 72, indicating an upward trend.
Support level: 0.6705;0.6690 Resistance level: 0.6740;0.6755
Conclusion: The Australian dollar is broken and the signal is stronger.
Suggestion: 0.6720 for long, target 0.6740, stop-loss at 0.67. (It is recommended not to consider the spread of the offer)
Position follow-up and profit and loss: 0.67 has been long, medium target 0.6720. (Arbitrage) (It is recommended not to consider the spread of the offer)
Cumulative profit and loss: 260 pips
EUR/USD
Market Theme / Sentiment : The US Dollar is still strong and euro technology rebounds.
Market Technology Brief Review : Hourchart shows that the euro is currently between the long and short average, indicating a slowdown in the decline. The narrowing of the Baoli plus channel indicates that the urban areas are still to be changed. RSI is around 51, indicating a neutral trend.
Support level: 1.0910;1.0890 Resistance level: 1.0925;1.0940
Conclusion: The euro rebounded slightly, but maintained its downward trend.
Suggestion: 1.0900 short, target 1.0880, stop loss 1.0915. (It is recommended not to consider the spread of the offer)
Position follow-up and profit and loss: 1.0930 short, not to the price, target 1.0915, stop loss 1.0945. (Reserved) (It is recommended not to consider the spread of the offer)
Cumulative profit and loss: 325 pips
GBP/USD
Market Themes / Sentiment: UK data turned better and the pound rebounded.
Market Technology Summary: The hour chart shows that the pound is currently above all averages, indicating a rise or restart. The expansion of the Baoli plus channel has a degree of visibility, which indicates the volatility of the post-market. RSI at 65 indicates a strong trend.
Support level: 1.2940;1.2910 Resistance level: 1.2980;1.3000
Conclusion: The pound establishes a path of rise.
Suggestion: 1.2980 short, target 1.2950, stop loss 1.3010. (It is recommended not to consider the spread of the offer)
Position follow-up and profit and loss: 1.2920 has been shorted, the target changed to 1.29 arbitrage. (Arbitrage) (It is recommended not to consider the spread of the offer)
Cumulative profit and loss: 390 pips
GOLD
Market Theme / Sentiment : The US dollar remains strong and gold prices have a downward trend.
Market Technology Summary : Hourchart shows that the current gold price below all averages, foreshadowing or showing a decline. The baoli plus channel expands slightly, indicating post-market volatility or breakout. RSI is around 47, indicating a neutral trend.
Support level: 1562;1558 Resistance level: 1570;1574
Conclusion: Gold prices are down, but the correction is in the middle of consolidation.
Suggestion: 1561 short, target 1558, stop loss 1564. (It is recommended not to consider the spread of the offer)
Position follow-up and profit and loss: 1569 has been shorted, not to target 1561, changed to 1564, stop loss 1575. (Hold) (It is recommended not to consider the spread of the offer)
Cumulative profit and loss: -126 USD
USOIL (US Crude Oil)
Market Theme / Sentiment : Market conditions are back to level and oil prices are more stable at the $50 mark.
Market Technology Brief Review : Hourly chart shows that the current oil price is above all averages, indicating that the rally is taking place. The Baoli plus channel has a width that indicates high volatility. RSI at 63 levels indicates a strong trend.
Support level: 50.40;50.00 Resistance level: 50.80;51.20
Conclusion: Oil prices are consolidation, to be broken.
Suggestion:50.4 for long, target 50.7, stop loss 50. (It is recommended not to consider the spread of the offer)
Position follow-up and profit and loss: 50.2 has been long, medium target 50.5. (Arbitrage) (Note the difference in the current over-the-counter spot price) (It is recommended not to consider the spread of the offer)
Cumulative profit and loss: $10.9
Risk Tip: The above contents are for informational purposes only and do not represent ZFX’s position, and ZFX does not assume any form of loss arising from any trading and purchase operations conducted herein. Please firmly their own thinking, do a good job of risk control.