ZFX: Hopes for the reopening of the US economy propped up risk appetite

Thursday (April 16) Review

• The initial jobless claims in the United States dropped to 5.245 million for the last week, but the figures still slightly more than expected, showing that it may be a deep economic slump caused by the coronavirus outbreak. The analysis generally believes that the figures will remain at the high level in the coming weeks. US stocks indexes fell at the opening due to the investor fears. However, US President Trump announced guidelines for reopening the US economy, stimulating the market sentiment again. The Wall Street three major indexes recovered the loss and closed slightly higher, which the Nasdaq rose 1.66%.

• President Trump announced guidelines for reopening the economy in three phases, but the governors of each state can implement the guidelines according to their own actual situation. Trump once again said that the outbreak in the United States has passed its peak period.

• In response to the unprecedented impact of the global pandemic on crude oil demand, the OPEC once again lowered its forecast for global oil demand this year, coupled with the poor performance of the US job data, the WTI crude futures are still under pressure below $20 level, which hurt the market sentiment.

• The number of confirmed cases worldwide exceeded 2.1 million, and more than 140000 death. However, the rate of increase has eased.

• Before the Asian session on Friday, good news came to the market regarding the antiviral medication “Remdesivir” developed by US pharmaceutical companies. Clinical trials have shown significant effects on the treatment of new coronavirus. The news boosted the stock market in the Asia-Pacific region, and US stock futures are currently soaring, with Dow futures rising more than 800 points.

ZFX analyst Jacob Leung said that the recent bullish and bearish factors have caused “ups and downs” in the financial markets, which can be normally expected. Of course it is quite worrying about the global recession, but if there is any “breaking” news about the new coronavirus, especially in vaccine development or treatment, we may see a “turning point.”

AUD / USD fundamentals or market sentiment – global stock markets have jumped and commodity currencies have turned stronger.

Support: 0.6330; 0.6270 Resistance: 0.6400; 0.6450

View: The Aussie has made three bottoms in short term, and the breakthrough shows bullish.

Recommendation: 0.6340 long, target 0.6360, stop loss 0.6320. (Recommendation does not take into account the bid-ask spread factor)

Position follow-up and profit and loss: 0.6310 has been short, just missed the target of 0.6270, stop loss at 0.6350. (Stopped) (Recommendation does not take into account the bid-ask spread factor)

Cumulative profit and loss: 510 pips

EUR / USD fundamentals or market sentiment – bearish sentiment made the move for the Greenback and the Euro.

Support: 1.0850; 1.0800 Resistance: 1.0910; 1.0940

View: The euro has recovered some of the lost, but it still tends to be bearish.

Recommendation: short 1.0885, target 1.0870, stop loss 1.0905. (Recommendation does not take into account the bid-ask spread factor)

Position follow-up and profit and loss: 1.0900 has been short, and the target is 1.0870. (Take profit) (Recommendation does not take into account the bid-ask spread factor)

Cumulative profit and loss: 440 pips

GBP / USD fundamentals or market sentiment – mainly driven by the trend of the dollar.

Support: 1.2450; 1.2400 Resistance: 1.2520; 1.2550

View: Sterling breaks the resistance and may turn to be neutral/ranging.

Recommendation: wait and see. (Recommendation does not take into account the bid-ask spread factor)

Position follow-up and profit and loss: 1.2520 has been short, the target is 1.2480, now change to 1.2500 to close, and the stop loss is 1.2520. (Hold) (Recommendation does not take into account the bid-ask spread factor)

Cumulative profit and loss: 315 pips

GOLD fundamentals or market sentiment – The trend is closely following the market sentiment, and “Remdesivir” news has caused fluctuations in the gold market.

Support: 1700; 1680 resistance: 1715; 1725

View: The trend of gold prices gradually formed a ranging pattern.

Recommendation: 1699 short, target 1685, stop loss 1706. (Recommendation does not take into account the bid-ask spread factor)

Position follow-up and profit and loss: 1705 has been short, and the stop loss is at 1715. (Stopped) (Recommendation does not take into account the bid-ask spread factor)

Cumulative profit and loss: -56 USD

USOIL (U.S. crude oil) fundamentals or market sentiment – energy demand is still expected to be quite sluggish and oil prices outlook are bleak.

Support: 25.50; 25.00 Resistance: 26.70; 27.50

View: Oil prices may still have chance for breaking downward.

Recommendation: At present, the OTC quotes of the oil market have big differences, so no recommendation is made.

Position follow-up and profit and loss: —

Cumulative profit and loss: $ 9.8

US30 (Dow) fundamentals or market sentiment – Good news for the coronavirus outbreak, boosted the investment sentiment.

Support: 24000; 23800 Resistance: 24500; 25000

View: The Dow broke the ranging and the target is now 25000.

Recommendation: 24100 long, target 24400, stop loss 23800. (Pay attention to the OTC quotations may have differences) (Recommendation does not take into account the bid-ask spread factor)

Position follow-up and profit and loss: 23500 has been short, before reaching the target of 23350, stop loss at 23650. (Stopped) (Pay attention to the OTC quotations differences)

Cumulative profit and loss: 200 points

Risk Warning: The above content is for reference only and does not represent ZFX’s position. ZFX does not assume any form of loss caused by any trading operations conducted in accordance with this article. Please be firm in your thinking and do the corresponding risk control.